Technical Forecast Discussion

910
FXUS65 KREV 090846
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
146 AM PDT Fri May 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Near record temperatures will be possible in western Nevada
  today and on Saturday with increased minor heat risk concerns
  and renewed snowmelt runoff.

* A late season storm system will bring increasing winds along
  with chances for mountain snowfall and valley rain showers from
  Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

* With high pressure firmly in place, high temperatures will peak
  today and on Saturday. Afternoon readings will end up in the mid
  to upper 80s (a few 90s) in western NV, eastern Lassen, and
  lower elevations of Mono County. The mid 70s to low 80s will be
  commonplace for a majority of eastern Sierra communities. For
  today, Reno still has a 30% chance to tie the record high of 88
  degrees and 10% chance to break that record. Otherwise, we`ll
  maintain a low 5% for isolated storms building over the Sierra
  this afternoon and also on Saturday afternoon. Westerly winds
  will once again become breezy during the afternoon, similar to
  yesterday. However with the next approaching system, winds will
  increase in strength from the southwest on Saturday with gusts
  between 25-35 mph for western NV and northeast CA; and upwards
  of 50 mph across the Sierra ridges.

* The next system to move into the area will arrive as early as
  Sunday. Both deterministic and the corresponding model ensembles
  are in good agreement in the evolution of the pattern. A trough
  will drop into northern CA by Sunday afternoon. This feature
  will then slowly move into central NV by late Tuesday into early
  Wednesday.

* The first concern with this late spring system will be a few
  days of strong west to southwest winds, primarily on Sunday and
  Monday. At the moment, wind prone areas of US-395/I-580 in
  western NV, northeast CA, and into Mono County each have a
  likely (>60%) chance for gusts of at least 50 mph or greater,
  with the 50th percentile maximum wind gusts of 50-60 mph. That
  said, expect a few days of adverse traveling conditions by road
  or air, and dangerous boating conditions on local area lakes.

* Precipitation chances will become likely in northeast CA and far
  northern Washoe County by Monday morning. Precipitation moves
  south through the remainder of the area Monday into Tuesday. The
  best chances (>60%) for precipitation will be in the eastern
  Sierra from northern Mono County northward into Lassen County.
  The chances for precipitation for the remainder of the area
  (W.NV, rest of Mono County) drop to 30-40%. We`ll continue with
  the wet weather through Tuesday, with shower chances diminishing
  by early Wednesday. Snow levels will drop to around 6,500` on
  Monday (8,000` in Mono County), then possibly as low as 5,500`
  Tuesday morning. Any snow accumulations will be tough to stick
  on the roadways given the warm conditions ahead of the system.
  Nonetheless, it will feel more like early March compared to the
  late June conditions we`ll have the next few days. -McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

Area terminals will see VFR conditions prevail again today with
light afternoon breezes out of the west-southwest. Isolated shower/T-
storm chances will be limited to around a 5% chance along the
Sierra crest during the afternoon hours today. Models continue to
show a spring low pressure system in the forecast this weekend
that will increase winds on Saturday afternoon with the potential
for strong and gusty winds for Sunday and Monday which could
yield increased likelihood of mountain wave turbulence and LLWS.
Area precipitation chances return by early Monday that continue
through Tuesday. -078

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion